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Hurricane Ian makes landfall at
Hurricane Ian is now a category 4 storm
Hurricane Ian track has shifted a little south of Tampa
Florida has been declared a state of emergency
Hurricane Ian could make landfall as a category 4
Hurricane Advisory 8:00 AM -Click Here
Hurricane Advisory 8:00 AM -Click Here
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND
FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data plus Key West radar near
latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward the
north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
later this morning or early afternoon. The center of Ian is
forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning
and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
after landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns
River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this
morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of
Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the
next few hours.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central
and south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
Hurricane Advisory 11:00 AM -Click Here
Hurricane Advisory 11:00 AM -Click Here
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to the mouth of the South Santee River, South Carolina.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida
northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to the South Santee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Little
River Inlet, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian
is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it
moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A Weatherflow station on Sanibel Island recently reported
sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 75 mph
(121 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St.
Johns River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area shortly, with
tropical storm conditions ongoing.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting overnight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday
through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east
coast currently, and should spread up northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next
few hours.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
Hurricane Advisory 2:00 PM -Click Here
Hurricane Advisory 2:00 PM -Click Here
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning for the Dry
Tortugas has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Tampa radar data
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 82.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida
tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by
late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and
approach the northeastern Florida coast in addition to the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane soon. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts late Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at
Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 94 mph
(151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 mph (203 km/h), A Weatherflow
station at Tarpon Point recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph
(134 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).
The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River ...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the
Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward
through the day.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the
east coast and should spread northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
Hurricane Advisory 5:00 PM -Click Here
Hurricane Advisory 5:00 PM -Click Here
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River
South Carolina to Little River Inlet.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf
City, North Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to
Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Lower Keys
and the Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for the Middle and
Upper Keys.
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys and for Florida Bay
have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
* Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 82.0 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida
tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by
late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and
approach the northeastern Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is
expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane
strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and
when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South
Carolina coasts late Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A WeatherFlow station in Grove City recently reported
sustained winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) and a wind gust of 128 mph
(208 km/h). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring
Program wind tower recently reported sustained winds of 89 mph
(143 km/h) with a gust to 114 mph (183 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area
now and will slowly spread northeastward through the day.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with
local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue
across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and
river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week
through the weekend. Locally considerable flash flooding, urban,
and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the
southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions
of southern Mid-Atlantic.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight
across east central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Hurricane Advisory 11:00 PM -Click Here
Hurricane Advisory 11:00 PM -Click Here
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WINDS, STORM
SURGE, AND FLOODING...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 81.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch for Lake Okeechobee is discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Raton is discontinued.
Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from Flamingo eastward to
the Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
northeast and north is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across
central Florida overnight and Thursday morning and emerge over the
western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn
northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected for the next day
or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over
the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Florida Keys...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Severe and extensive wind damage is likely near the core of
Ian. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning
area now and will slowly spread northeastward overnight.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Low Country of South Carolina: 4 to 8
inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and
southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
across western North Carolina.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of
southern Mid-Atlantic.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across parts of
east-central and northeast Florida through Thursday morning. This
threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
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